Saturday, September 24, 2011
US Dollar start to strengthen from now
Kebijangan Fed untuk merubah porsi maturity obligasi jangka pendek ke jangka panjang / “Operation Twist” akan membuat kurva yield obligasi semakin curam dan akan menarik dana kembali masuk ke amerika. Maka mulai dari hari ini USD akan kembali menguat.
Thursday, September 22, 2011
Buy stock at crash make you rich faster
Salah satu cara membuat anda kaya cepat adalah membeli saham ketika market saham krisis bukan ekonomi negaranya.
Friday, September 9, 2011
It’s only and purely a panic selling
SUMMARY
Pergerakan IHSG mulai terlepaskan dari pergerakan Dow Jones. Alasan pergerakan IHSG melepaskan diri dari pergerakan Dow Jones ini juga di topang oleh struktur ekonomi negara maju yang berbeda dengan negara berkembang seperti Indonesia. Indonesia sangat di berkahkan dengan ekonomi berpopulasi besar yang dimana konsumsi domestik masih menjadi kunci terbesar pertumbuhan ekonomi (sekitar 60% lebih dari total ekonomi). Penjualan saham yang panik di tahun 2008 berbeda dengan yang ada di 2011. Semua indikator ekonomi Indonesia masih menunjukan trend penguatan di tahun 2011 ini.
INSIDE
IHSG is decoupling from Dow Jones
Panic Selling in 2008 unlike in 2011
Indonesia’s Consumer Related Indicators in 2008 vs in 2011
Stock-Picking:
o Big Cap. : ASII – AmChart Plus Minus
BBRI – AmChart Plus Minus
BBCA – Parabolic SAR
GGRM – AmChart Plus Minus
o Medium Cap.: HRUM – AmChart Trending
CPIN– AmChart Plus Minus
o Small Cap.: ASRI – AmChart Plus Minus
LPCK – AmChart Bottom Fishing
Pergerakan IHSG mulai terlepaskan dari pergerakan Dow Jones. Alasan pergerakan IHSG melepaskan diri dari pergerakan Dow Jones ini juga di topang oleh struktur ekonomi negara maju yang berbeda dengan negara berkembang seperti Indonesia. Indonesia sangat di berkahkan dengan ekonomi berpopulasi besar yang dimana konsumsi domestik masih menjadi kunci terbesar pertumbuhan ekonomi (sekitar 60% lebih dari total ekonomi). Penjualan saham yang panik di tahun 2008 berbeda dengan yang ada di 2011. Semua indikator ekonomi Indonesia masih menunjukan trend penguatan di tahun 2011 ini.
INSIDE
IHSG is decoupling from Dow Jones
Panic Selling in 2008 unlike in 2011
Indonesia’s Consumer Related Indicators in 2008 vs in 2011
Stock-Picking:
o Big Cap. : ASII – AmChart Plus Minus
BBRI – AmChart Plus Minus
BBCA – Parabolic SAR
GGRM – AmChart Plus Minus
o Medium Cap.: HRUM – AmChart Trending
CPIN– AmChart Plus Minus
o Small Cap.: ASRI – AmChart Plus Minus
LPCK – AmChart Bottom Fishing
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
JCI is at premium but regional market is also over-sold
JCI's valuation is premium to regional market at the moment. The turbulence of US market did not pushed JCI low enough compared to the fall in the regional market. So, does it mean JCI will drop from now? Yes, but with tolerated percent.
The logic of global market move in positive correlation is correct, but not always the high valuation market will go down to adjust to the low valuation market, but the low can also go up to adjust the high one.
I believe JCI fragile from US thunder and regional market is over-sold at the moment. Even few of them already traded at the lowest valuation since 2008 therefore, I believe they will rebound from now.
Now, JCI is traded at 15x earnings. Historically, at period of positive real interest rate cycle like today, JCI traded lowest to just 13x or equal to 3200.
The fed will continue give doping to their market, QE will never end. They just can't accept the reality. What does it mean? Just imagine how a doping football player stop doping.
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The logic of global market move in positive correlation is correct, but not always the high valuation market will go down to adjust to the low valuation market, but the low can also go up to adjust the high one.
I believe JCI fragile from US thunder and regional market is over-sold at the moment. Even few of them already traded at the lowest valuation since 2008 therefore, I believe they will rebound from now.
Now, JCI is traded at 15x earnings. Historically, at period of positive real interest rate cycle like today, JCI traded lowest to just 13x or equal to 3200.
The fed will continue give doping to their market, QE will never end. They just can't accept the reality. What does it mean? Just imagine how a doping football player stop doping.
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Monday, January 24, 2011
Market Strategy: Its economic cycle, the phase is changing now
Investment Highlight
If you believe on economic cycle, the phase is changing now. We would have very high inflation in 2011, if central bank does nothing on tighten the policy, inflation will accelerate and finally cause more problems. But if central bank increases interest rate it is not good for equity. I believe inflation rate higher than interest rate at least for 1 year now onward. We set JCI’s target to 2,772 implied 11x PER forward.
JCI’s Valuation
Looking at what happened in 2010 inflation was accelerating from 3.4% in early 2010 to highest 6.9% in dec10. In the same time, Indonesia’s GDP rose to 6% in 3Q10 from 4% in 4Q09 and unemployment dropped from 8% in 3Q10 to 7% in 4Q09. This inflation phenomenal we called it as demand-pull inflation or inflation cause by increased
in consumption. It’s also reflected from growth in car sales, housing sales and other consumer goods sales. As the result, JCI rose by 46% with ASII, UNVR, KLBF, banking and property stocks lead the market.
Although inflation has shown fear in 4Q10, JCI stubbornly record high. We believe this due to optimism in re-rating Indonesia’s investment grade or one more level to investment grade by moody and too much liquidity from money printing in US and EU countries to Asia.
In Indonesia’s growing economic we always have inflation, but in 2011 the source would come from supply-side where most of the inflation rate comes from commodities price and have already been reflected in Coal prices, CPO prices, and Chili prices early this year. Nevertheless, street is predicting more supply constrain and unpredicted weather in supplier today’s push commodities price to skyrocket in 2011.
Central bank’s role is to tighten the policy to tame the current accelerating inflation rate. The most feasible policy in short-run is to increase interest rate. However, we believe increasing interest rate would not effective in situation where inflation causes by supply-side. We believe central bank has same though by looking at the statement he made in newspaper.
We value JCI at 11x PER forward or at level 2,772. In historical negative real interest rate JCI is traded at average 11x PER and positive real interest rate economic phase traded at 14x PER forward. We believe our target is conservative as we are using current buoyant earnings consensus. Looking at today’s market sentiment, potential earnings downgrade by analysts are wide.
Where can it be right?
1. In the phase of inflation higher than interest rate, market is bearish.
2. We believe inflation rate higher than interest rate in 2011.
3. Increasing interest rate ineffective to bring cost-push inflation down.
4. If BI rate increase, stock market will decrease
5. In historical, negative real interest rate phases were last only for 1 year and positive real interest rate phases were last for 1.5 – 2 years. Today, Indonesia has past 602 days of positive real interest rate.
6. Indonesia inflation rate in December is 6.9% or higher than interest rate 6.5%. In economic history, inflation rate higher than interest rate last for at least one year not one month.
Where can it be wrong?
1. Commodities prices not rise as high as street expecting
2. Central bank or government policies succeed to slow down inflation rate.
How JCI move in 2011
JCI rebound in short-run after inflation rate announced in late jan11 to early feb11
JCI decline back as inflation accelerates back until 2Q2011 (Feb 2011 – July 2011)
JCI consolidate after big decline in 3Q2011 (Aug 2011 – Sep 2011)
JCI bullish after highest inflation rate reported in 4Q2011 (Oct 2011 – Dec 2011)
Sector to overweight
1. Banks with high liquidity such as, BMRI, BBCA and BBNI
2. Commodities play. Supply constrain push price higher
3. Companies with low leverage or DER
4. Coal with highest price sensitive: BORN, INDY, HRUM, ITMG, and PTBA
5. CPO with highest price sensitive: AALI, LSIP, SGRO and BWPT
6. Commodity related plays: HEXA, UNTR, and DOID
Sector to avoid
Bank with tight liquidity
Company with high leverage or DER
If you believe on economic cycle, the phase is changing now. We would have very high inflation in 2011, if central bank does nothing on tighten the policy, inflation will accelerate and finally cause more problems. But if central bank increases interest rate it is not good for equity. I believe inflation rate higher than interest rate at least for 1 year now onward. We set JCI’s target to 2,772 implied 11x PER forward.
JCI’s Valuation
Looking at what happened in 2010 inflation was accelerating from 3.4% in early 2010 to highest 6.9% in dec10. In the same time, Indonesia’s GDP rose to 6% in 3Q10 from 4% in 4Q09 and unemployment dropped from 8% in 3Q10 to 7% in 4Q09. This inflation phenomenal we called it as demand-pull inflation or inflation cause by increased
in consumption. It’s also reflected from growth in car sales, housing sales and other consumer goods sales. As the result, JCI rose by 46% with ASII, UNVR, KLBF, banking and property stocks lead the market.
Although inflation has shown fear in 4Q10, JCI stubbornly record high. We believe this due to optimism in re-rating Indonesia’s investment grade or one more level to investment grade by moody and too much liquidity from money printing in US and EU countries to Asia.
In Indonesia’s growing economic we always have inflation, but in 2011 the source would come from supply-side where most of the inflation rate comes from commodities price and have already been reflected in Coal prices, CPO prices, and Chili prices early this year. Nevertheless, street is predicting more supply constrain and unpredicted weather in supplier today’s push commodities price to skyrocket in 2011.
Central bank’s role is to tighten the policy to tame the current accelerating inflation rate. The most feasible policy in short-run is to increase interest rate. However, we believe increasing interest rate would not effective in situation where inflation causes by supply-side. We believe central bank has same though by looking at the statement he made in newspaper.
We value JCI at 11x PER forward or at level 2,772. In historical negative real interest rate JCI is traded at average 11x PER and positive real interest rate economic phase traded at 14x PER forward. We believe our target is conservative as we are using current buoyant earnings consensus. Looking at today’s market sentiment, potential earnings downgrade by analysts are wide.
Where can it be right?
1. In the phase of inflation higher than interest rate, market is bearish.
2. We believe inflation rate higher than interest rate in 2011.
3. Increasing interest rate ineffective to bring cost-push inflation down.
4. If BI rate increase, stock market will decrease
5. In historical, negative real interest rate phases were last only for 1 year and positive real interest rate phases were last for 1.5 – 2 years. Today, Indonesia has past 602 days of positive real interest rate.
6. Indonesia inflation rate in December is 6.9% or higher than interest rate 6.5%. In economic history, inflation rate higher than interest rate last for at least one year not one month.
Where can it be wrong?
1. Commodities prices not rise as high as street expecting
2. Central bank or government policies succeed to slow down inflation rate.
How JCI move in 2011
JCI rebound in short-run after inflation rate announced in late jan11 to early feb11
JCI decline back as inflation accelerates back until 2Q2011 (Feb 2011 – July 2011)
JCI consolidate after big decline in 3Q2011 (Aug 2011 – Sep 2011)
JCI bullish after highest inflation rate reported in 4Q2011 (Oct 2011 – Dec 2011)
Sector to overweight
1. Banks with high liquidity such as, BMRI, BBCA and BBNI
2. Commodities play. Supply constrain push price higher
3. Companies with low leverage or DER
4. Coal with highest price sensitive: BORN, INDY, HRUM, ITMG, and PTBA
5. CPO with highest price sensitive: AALI, LSIP, SGRO and BWPT
6. Commodity related plays: HEXA, UNTR, and DOID
Sector to avoid
Bank with tight liquidity
Company with high leverage or DER
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